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BREAKING: TRUMP NOT IMMUNE

DC Circuit rules that Trump should not have refused so many COVID-19 shots and boosters

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The DC Circuit Court of Appeals has rejected former President Trump's interlocutory appeal from the decision of District Court Judge Chutkan on Trump's motion to dismiss the indictment against him for crimes related to his attempts unlawfully to retain power. The circuit panel unanimously agreed with Judge Chutkan that former presidents are not immune from criminal prosecution for crimes committed while holding office.

Anyone who was impatient to read this can now see why it took so long—there is a lot of close reasoning involved and careful picking apart of arguments down to their constituent loose screws and nuts.

Next up: Trump may ask for hearing en banc by the entire Circuit Court of Appeals. That review is discretionary. If review is granted and the conclusion remains that Trump lacks immunity or if review is not the next step would be a petition for certiorari to the U.S. Supreme Court, which is also discretionary. Or Trump can bypass the en banc option and go directly to SCOTUS. He should only do that if he is doubtful that the result will change; otherwise, he should avail himself of the delay from doing the two-step. But, you know, it might come down to how much ketchup is on the walls on Monday.

Will the Supremes bite? The answer isn't obvious. As a technical exercise in fine tuning, it's almost too difficult to resist. Not that the decision is wrong, just that it turns on so many subtle points that the inner law review souls cry out for an opportunity to demonstrate virtuosity.

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Counting chickens

Counting chickens

Refining polling models. It's the received wisdom of the ages—don't rely on events that haven't happened yet. On the other hand, don't bring a knife to a gunfight, either.

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