Richard Careaga
Boomer (there's that). Lawyer (ouch!). Polymath (i.e., attention disorder). Big Thinker™️. Data science dilettante. Post-patriarchal.
Greater Seattle, Washington, US
Counting chickens
Refining polling models. It's the received wisdom of the ages—don't rely on events that haven't happened yet. On the other hand, don't bring a knife to a gunfight, either.
The Devil Went Down to Georgia
If the election is close again, recounts will make it unlikely that the election outcome will be known on the day of voting.
History and tradition strike again
What comes of turning legal analysis into historiography.
What March polls really show
Those who cannot remember history are doomed to be confused.
Presidential immunity, again
Framing is everything, and in US v Trump, the focus should have been kept on "official acts."
Pick a number, almost any number
How should you really react to the latest poll that makes you queasy.
BREAKING!!!!
Take a pass on the horserace and go to the 2024 election breeding shed to watch facts as they accumulate.
Seven Swing States
Introducing swingwatch.org, a saner take on taking in the polling ups and downs
The Gray Lady hasn't faded some more, after all
Compared to the print edition, digital NYT has infinite news hole, so all the news that fits is no longer a constraint.
Trump takes gig as a wax figure
Well, I've got to run to keep from hidin' And I'm bound to keep on ridin' And I've got one more silver dollar But I'm not gonna let 'em catch me, no Not gonna let 'em catch the midnight rider
RINOcracy loses to The First Church of Trump the Redeemer
But, but. God's on OUR side.
Donald Trump is running to own right
Trump is doubling and redoubling down for the same reason that drug dealers spike horse with fentanyl. Users get habituated, and need escalating stimulus to stay in the the outrage zone.
Petitioner's brief in U.S. v. Trump, Part I Detail
Last time we looked at the wind-up for the first part of the immunity argument. Here we recount the pitch.
Petitioner's brief in U.S. v. Trump, Part I lead-in
Team Trump's brief in the immunity case gets off wrong-footed