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We are tending, so far, toward a rematch of the 2020 election. In SwingWatch.org, I track election related news from the seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. (It's totally non-commercial.) The seven states have in common: 1) a news consensus that each is in play, 2) all won by Biden in 2020 except North Carolina, and 3) all were decided by under 100,000 votes, except Michigan.
There are nine other states and election districts won by under 100,000 votes, but the percentage margins were greater than 5% of the total of votes cast for the top two candidates. The swing states, other than Michigan and Nevada, had margins of less than 1% for Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Only Nevada was above 2%. Of these, the margin in Georgia, 11,779 votes, was just 0.24%.
What this means for your election watch party
Georgia's canvas of votes will be contested as much or more as in 2020, and this time there will be more legal avenues, many related to first-time use of new chain-of-custody procedures, for example. If the margin is less than 0.5% of the votes cast for president, either candidate can request a recount. Unless the margin in Georgia exceeds more than 25,000 votes (based on the assumption of the same turnout as in 2020), a recount should be assumed.
With Georgia in suspense
There are 24 potential winning outcomes for Biden that don't involve Georgia. All of them involve Pennsylvania or North Carolina or both.
Pennsylvania could also be in recount if the margin is less than 34,685 votes, which is less than half of the 2020 margin. In North Carolina, the margin would have to be less than 10,000 votes. If both states have recounts, the election outcome cannot be known on Election Day.
If Pennsylvania only is in recount status, there are only four outcomes in which Biden could have a victory before the results of the recounts. These all require Biden to win North Carolina.
Other recount contingencies
If neither Pennsylvania nor North Carolina are in recount status, and the margin in Michigan is less than 27,270 votes, based on the 2020 election, Michigan will also be in recount status. Four of the seven outcomes that give Biden victory depend on Nevada, which has no minimum margin required for a recount. The three remaining scenarios require that Biden win both Pennsylvania and North Carolina and either Arizona or Wisconsin or both. Arizona is subject to recount if the margin is less than 16,937, based on the 2020 election. Wisconsin is subject to recount if the margin is less than 32,981 votes, based on the 2020 election.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona but loses North Carolina, he still can win on Election Night without results from Georgia or Nevada.
